Paul Nicholls feels that Kauto Star is a certainty for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he will tell Racing Post readers why in his column on Friday, which will inevitably cause the odds to tumble, and, while I would not advise you to play your hand too early as rain is forecast and his price is sure to drift, Cheltenham dries out quickly, and with the New Course, over which the Gold Cup is run, also riding faster than the Old, where they race on the first two days, set your alarm clocks early on Thursday and steal first run on the champion trainer by snapping up anything above 2-1 for the 2007 champion. Says Geoff Lester

I was fortunate to have an exclusive walk around Ditcheat with Nicholls last month – a week before the official press tour – and he left me in no doubt that Kauto Star was the one to be on and is angry that the horse has never received due credit for his achievements.

“Kauto Star is a hell of a horse – you show me another Gold Cup winner who could bounce back to win another King George and finish second in an exceptional Gold Cup,” said Nicholls, adding “The ground is immaterial – it was barely raceable when he won at Down Royal and not much better when he won his first Tingle Creek, and the key to this horse is keeping him fresh and having him right on the day. I made a mistake in running him in the Ascot Chase before Cheltenham last year – it took the edge off him, but this year he has just been kept ticking over since Kempton. He is the complete package, he has speed and stamina, and he is flying at home. Bring it on.”

Confident words, and Nicholls, who is far from convinced that Denman has recovered from his gruelling Gold Cup victory last March – “he didn’t even have the energy to put his head out of the top of the box the following morning,” – predicts that Neptune Collonges, who ran such a great race last year to finish third, is the one for the forecast. Neptune Collonges lost his confidence when taking a heavy fall in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, but extensive schooling did the trick and he looked at the top of his game again when he won the Irish Hennessy back there in February.

All the value has gone about Madison du Berlais, who was surely flattered by his Kempton win as, besides Denman, Alberta’s Run never ran any sort of race, so the form is probably worth less than the Euro.

Royalists will probably support Barber’s Shop, especially when they read that The Queen is attending, but he needs to improve a stone, and, for me, the other one for the tricast is Exotic Dancer, who was runner-up to Kauto Star two years ago.

Exotic Dancer has been beaten by Kauto Star seven times – the only time that he finished in front of the Nicholls horse was when Sam Thomas fell off the favourite at the last at Haydock – but he showed he was not yet ready for his pension book when winning the Lexus and at 10-1 and with AP McCoy aboard he represents the each-way value.

This is the week in which we are told to ‘Beware the Ides of March’, but, while before steaming in blind on the favourites, it is worth noting that of the 25 races at the Festival last year only two were won by the “jolly”, Kauto Star is one market-leader that I do expect to win.