This season’s totesport Gold Cup may be showing a short-priced favourite in Kauto Star at 7-4, but the Blue Riband of the jumps season has a much more open look to it than the betting would suggest. By Clive Weight
Trainer Paul Nicholls plans to field a strong hand in this year’s renewal of the extended 3m2f contest, with Kauto Star favourite, last year’s winner Denman and Neptunes Collonges filling the first three places in the market.
However, with doubts surrounding Nicholls’ runners, the value would appear to lie elsewhere. This certainly isn’t a race to get too heavily involved in, as it is possible to see a number of scenarios occurring in the latest renewal.
Where better to start than with last year’s winner Denman. Often seen as a big-track bully, this huge nine-year-old gelding has something to prove after his bubble burst at Kempton last time when coming home a punch-drunk 23l adrift of Madison Du Berlais over 3m.
The key to Denman is to allow this giant striding horse to dictate matters, which usually results in his rivals crying enough as he grounds out a relentless pace. But that spark was missing last time, and after his much reported heart scare, it is difficult to get carried away with his chances, no matter how much he may have needed that run last time.
Stablemate Kauto Star, winner of the Gold Cup two years ago, tried his hardest to follow-up last year, but he couldn’t match Denman for pace that day and here he tries to become the first horse to regain the Gold Cup. A total of 35 attempts have been made to recapture the crown, but as of yet none have managed it.
Looking at his form this year, his Champion Chase win at Down Royal in November aside where he beat just four rivals, he hasn’t looked the force of old.
Many may argue he was impressive in landing a third King George at Kempton last time, but he loves the track and beat very little of any note in what looked a substandard renewal of the Boxing Day showpiece.
That said, he is the class act and has been here before and got the T-shirt, but would you be willing to back a 7-4 shot knowing he is likely to make at least one major blunder at his fences? He has to be on the shortlist, but the race has a feel of an improving contender troubling the old guard.
Second favourite, and the third of Paul Nicholls’ runners in the race is Neptunes Collonges.
The eight-year-old boasts an impressive set of form figures, winning or having been placed in 13 of his 17 starts over fences, the latest of which an demolition job of his five rivals in the Irish Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup.
Many pundits were waxing lyrical as to his chances of landing the premier prize in jumps racing after that 5l win over Notre Pere, but again, that form looked some way shy of what is needed to win a race of this nature.
Nicholls’ stable jockey Ruby Walsh must have had some sleepless nights in choosing what to ride, and for me it speaks volumes that he abandons Neptunes Collonges for Kauto Star, for all that he got it wrong last year when partnering Kauto Star instead of Denman. It should also be remembered that Neptunes Collonges is prone to the odd mistake at his fences.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Exotic Dancer ended a barren run of no wins in winning by 20l in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last time, but the winning margin flattered the nine-year-old, who boasts a good record at Prestbury Park (four wins and three placed efforts from nine starts).
Had Neptunes Collonges not fallen two out that day, and with The Listener also tipping up, the form of that race also looks rather suspect. He rates another who looks as though his very best days are behind him, and it will rate a rather poor Gold Cup if he comes out on top.
Exotic Dancer’s stablemate Albertas Run chased home Kauto Star in the King George last time, just 8l adrift but, like the above, it’ll be a poor renewal if he has his head in front of the rest at the line. The same could be said of Air Force One, who chased home Madison Du Berlais in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November.
It could be argued Air Force One was giving the winner 3lb that day and was beaten only 3l, but whereas he was emptying at the line, Madison Du Berlais stuck on gamely to the line.
And so we come to the young upstarts. On official ratings, The Queen’s Barbers Shop needs to improve 23lb to match Denman, but as we all know, it isn’t easy to get a handle on an improver until they tackle the very best, an opportunity he will get here.
The seven-year-old son of Saddlers’ Hall has been lightly campaigned with just seven starts over fences, but there is no mistaking he is going the right way.
He started off the current campaign with a tremendous two-and-three-quarter second to handicap ‘good thing’ Imperial Commander in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham over an extended 2m4f, pulling 11l clear of the third, before going on to frank that form with a cosy win over an extended 3m at Ascot, allaying fears of his not staying beyond 3m.
He wasn’t stopping that day, and at 14-1 he rates one to be interested in. Also, throw in the fact trainer Nicky Henderson has a decent record at the Festival with his stable also showing a return to winning ways in the past week and you have an obvious candidate.
The other improving runner in  the line-up is David Pipe’s Hennessy Gold Cup winner Madison Du Berlais.
Prices vary from 6-1 with totesport to 9-1 with William Hill. Many aren’t convinced of his credentials due to him wearing cheekpieces, often a sign of an ungenuine sort, but in 1999 See More Business wore blinkers to success and there is no doubting Madison Du Berlais’ wins this term.
Yes, holes could be picked in the form of his thrashing of Denman last time at Kempton when dishing out a 23l rout of that rival, but he galloped them into submission that day, has proven he stays the trip and his two most impressive wins have come on good to soft ground which, unless there is a deluge of rain, is what he should get again on Friday. Even if not, he has won on soft ground in the past.
 
In summary, doubts surround Denman’s soundness. Neptunes Collonges is consistent, but he may again have to settle for a place and is abandoned by stable jockey Ruby Walsh, while Exotic Dancer’s best days may be behind him.
The three that make most appeal are Kauto Star, but as his price is so cramped, a punt on improving pair Barbers Shop at 14-1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Totesport) and Denman’s conqueror Madison Du Berlais at 9-1 (Hills, Paddy Power) look the value in what promises to be an intriguing contest.