CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP 2009 BETTING PREVIEW JOHN PAUL
No matter how impressive a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has been it is very rare for them to give a repeat performance. This year’s renewal features three previous victors all of whom are opposable in terms of statistics and form.
Kauto Star looked to have been back to somewhere near his best at Kempton on Boxing Day but the fact that he got beat in the Blue Riband last year and is a bit prone to errors makes him very poor value indeed at 2/1ish.
What are we to think about Denman? Following his demolition jobs in the Hennessy Gold Cup and again at last season’s festival, this horse had the world at his feet. Not seen on a racecourse for almost a year because of suspected heart problems and then he gets slammed on his reappearance. No, this cannot be the same horse so he won’t be carrying any of my money in a race of this calibre.
War of Attrition could surprise a few people at 33/1 but I wouldn’t back him with any confidence.
Paul Nicholls’ second string seems now to be Neptune Collonges. A horse of immense potential but at 5/1 is hardly a working man’s price and I feel he could find one or two too good.
Similar comments apply to Madison Du Berlais whose run last time could prove misleading as Denman and Albertas Run were far from their best.
Exotic Dancer is still at the peak of his career but often flatters to deceive and looks destined to make the frame at best.
When Albertas Run won the Sun Alliance I thought he was a horse with real future but he hasn’t been able to build on that and is passed over
Air Force One is a horse I like a lot and he continues to show promise. However, I doubt whether this will be his day.
So I think the value is best found elsewhere and am sensing a Royal victory. The fact that Nicky Henderson has thrown Barbers Shop in at the deep end here speaks volumes. The further this horse goes the better he gets and he possesses that crucial turn of foot that makes all the difference up that torturous hill. Still only seven this horse has a big future ahead of him and at current odds represents a sound wager.
